Junko Yoshida at EE Times is one of the half-dozen best tech reporters in the world, not given to careless comments. I do think she is a little ahead of herself because it is still early, but I respect her point of view.
Huawei is generally at the top of the heap, but Ericsson is actually ahead in some aspects. Ericsson has also made the decision to match Huawei’s prices on major bids.
Total worldwide sales this year should be between 200,000 & 350,000 radios. Next year, over a million radios are likely to be sold. Much is still to happen. That said, it is hard to see how anyone can catch up to Huawei and its US$15 billion research budget.
Between 35% and 50% of 5G cells in the next two years will be installed in China. Huawei will get at least 40% of the volume, Ericsson 10% or less.
True, Huawei will not sell much if any in the U.S., but that’s not nearly enough to compensate for Huawei’s lead in China.
But Huawei’s lead will not approach a monopoly. In many industries, the second and third companies often do quite well. That’s the likely result for Ericsson.
Ren is a strong advocate for keeping Nokia and Ericsson strong because competition is good for the industry.